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Scientific Evidence Increasing Temperatures & Greenhouse Gases
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Noting these trends, and recognizing the potential for dramatic changes in the climate due to continued unchecked accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The purpose of the IPCC was to objectively review existing and developing peer-reviewed scientific literature to form an objective evaluation about the risk of human-induced climate change. After years of investigation and in consultation with thousands of scientists, the IPCC was able to write, in its Second Assessment Report in 1995, that climate has changed over the past century and that the twentieth century had a mean temperature “at least as warm as any other century since 1400 A.D.” Their report noted that the dramatic increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere over the past 150 years (from about 280 parts per million to about 376 parts per million) is largely due to anthropogenic (human-caused) effects and concluded that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Their models predicted a rise of 1.8 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the global mean surface temperature during the next century, with sea-levels expected to rise by 6 inches to 3 feet by 2100. (IPCC 1995). The conclusions of the IPCC gained broad support in the world scientific community and, in the summer of 1997, a letter signed by 2,600 scientists called for the United States to take a leadership role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to diminish the likelihood of intense, continuous global warming. Improved Models, Growing ConfidenceThe Third Assessment Report of the IPCC was released in 2001, incorporating new research undertaken in the five years since the Second Assessment Report. Increased confidence in evolving modeling techniques lent added weight to the linkage between rising temperatures and continued greenhouse accumulations.
For example, recorded global temperature change can be compared with computer models that predict temperature change under different "forcing" scenarios, (with "forcing" signifying external influences on the solar radiative budget of the planet - greenhouse gases, aerosols, increased solar radiation, and other agents). Fig. 2 above compares observed temperature anomalies from the historic mean (red line) with the results of computer models that attempt to predict temperature based on the interactions of other environmental influences (gray line). The top two charts in the figure illustrate that models using natural and anthropogenic influences alone [(a) Natural Forcing Only & (b) Anthropogenic Forcing Only] fail to match the observed record of temperature anomalies since 1866. But the combination of natural and anthropogenic models [(c) Natural + Anthropogenic Forcing] produces a close match to the measured data. This is seen as a clear "thumbprint" of human impacts on climate change. Based on results such as these, the IPCC's 2001 report stated emphatically that "concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to increase as a result of human activities." Revised models for the future predict even higher anticipated temperature increases than did the First Assessment Report (2.5 degrees to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 under different likely scenarios), while estimates for sea-level rise, though significant, decreased slightly with refinements to the models used. Accumulating EvidenceOther evidence of the reality of global warming continues to accumulate. Consistent with predictions of the IPCC since 1990, global average temperatures have indeed been rising while atmospheric CO2 increases at a rate of approximately 1.6 ppm per year (Fig. 3, below).
The ten hottest years in the period of instrumental data
(since 1861) have all occurred since 1989. The warmest year was 1998,
followed by 2002 and 2003 (tied), 2001, 1997, 1995, 1990 & 1999 (tied)
and 1991 & 2000 (tied) (Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia), and it is now generally recognized that
the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year in the
instrumental record (Fig. 4, below).
The global monthly temperature record for each month of the year over the history of instrumented data has occurred since 1997 (Fig. 5, below).
Other global events are suggestive of climatic changes that are likely to become more prevalent under a changing global climate regime. Glaciers are present on every continent other than Australia and function as reasonably well-distributed indicators of changing global temperatures. Worldwide, glaciers and icefields have been shrinking and receding for at least the last century. The collapse of the 1250 square mile Antarctic Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 was just one of the more spectacular instances of a phenomenon that is likely to become more frequent in a warmer world. Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is an event long predicted by climate scientists as an indication of a warming atmosphere (Gelbspan 1997). The northern Arctic region appears to be even more vulnerable than the
Antarctic (which may actually see increases to its ice sheet due to
increased precipitation under a changing climate regime) and in a 2004
report by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), (Impacts
of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment), the list
of Arctic change due to warming includes such phenomena as decreases in
sea ice, increasing precipitation and river discharge, thawing of glaciers
and permafrost, and changes in plant and animal abundances and
distributions.
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Solar radiation. global warming facts. interacts with the surface of the earth in several ways. Some portion of this energy is reflected back into space by the earth's atmosphere, another portion is dispersed and scattered by the molecules in the atmosphere and a large portion penetrates through the earth's atmosphere to reach the surface of the earth. The radiation reaching the earth's surface is largely absorbed resulting in surface warming much of this absorbed global warming causes energy is eventually re-radiated in longer infrared wavelengths. As it leaves the earth, it once again interacts with the atmosphere. Some of this re-radiated energy escapes to space, but much of this re-radiated energy is reflected back to the earth's surface by molecules in the earth's atmosphere. This phenomenon is similar effects global warming to the warming that occurs in an automobile parked outside on a sunny day. The molecules responsible global warming effect for this phenomenon are called greenhouse gases, i.e. water (H2O), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) because they act like the glass in a greenhouse, trapping re-radiated energy. Without these gases most life on earth would not be possible, as the surface temperature of the earth would likely be about 60°F colder. In essence, greenhouse gases act like an insulator or blanket above the earth, global warming graphs keeping the heat in. Increasing the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere increases the atmosphere's ability to block the escape of infrared radiation. In other words, climate change global warming the earth's insulator gets thicker. Therefore too great a concentration of greenhouse gases can have dramatic effects on climate and significant repercussions upon the world around us. Climates suitable for human existence do not exist simply above some minimum threshold level of greenhouse gas exist within a finite window - a limited range of greenhouse gas concentrations that makes life as we know it possible. GLOBAL WARMING Earth at Warmest in 400 Years. There is sufficient evidence from tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers, and other "proxies" of past surface temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years, according to a new report from the National Research Council. Less confidence can be placed in proxy-based reconstructions of surface temperatures for A.D. 900 to 1600, said the committee that wrote the report, although the available proxy evidence does indicate that many locations were warmer during the past 25 years than during any other 25-year period since 900. Very little confidence can be placed in statements about average global surface global warming consequences temperatures prior to A.D. 900 because the proxy data for that time frame are the committee added 2006 on pace to be warmest year on record in the US. The average temperature for the continental United States from January through June 2006 was the warmest first half of any year since records began in 1895, according to scientists at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) World temperatures highest in 1200 years. World temperatures are higher than in any period over the last 1,200 years, according to a study published in the current issue of Science. In reaching their conclusion, a research team from the University of East Anglia in Britain analyzed 14 sets of temperature records including data from rings, fossil shells, ice cores, temperature records, and historical documents from North America, Europe and East Asia. Carbon highest in 650,000 years. Carbon dioxide levels are now 27 percent higher than at any point in the last 650,000 years, according to research into Antarctic ice cores published on Thursday in Science. Analysis of carbon dioxide in the ancient Antarctic ice showed that at no point in the past 650,000 years did levels approach today's carbon dioxide concentrations of around 380 parts per million The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach 450-550 ppm by 2050, possibly resulting in higher temperatures and rising sea levels. There is fear that climate change could create a class of environmental refugees displaced from their homes by rising oceans, increasingly catastrophic weather, and expanding deserts. NASA Study Finds World Warmth Edging Ancient Levels A new study by NASA scientists finds that the world's temperature is reaching a level that has not been seen in thousands of years. The study, led by James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, N.Y., along with scientists from other organizations concludes that, because of a rapid warming trend over the past 30 years, the Earth is now reaching and passing through the warmest levels in the current interglacial period, which has lasted nearly 12,000 years. An "interglacial period" is a time in the Earth's history when the area of Earth covered by glaciers was similar or smaller than at the present time. Recent warming is forcing species of plants and animals to move toward the north and south poles. The study used temperatures around the world taken during the last century. Scientists concluded that these data showed the Earth has been warming at the remarkably rapid rate of approximately 0.36° Fahrenheit (0.2° Celsius) per decade for the past 30 years. "This evidence implies that we are getting close to dangerous levels of human-made pollution," said Hansen. In recent decades, human-made greenhouse gases have become the largest climate change factor. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and warm the surface. Some greenhouse gases, which include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone, occur naturally, while others are due to human activities. The study notes that the world's warming is greatest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and it is larger over land than over ocean areas. The enhanced warming at high latitudes is attributed to effects of ice and snow. As the Earth warms, snow and ice melt, uncovering darker surfaces that absorb more sunlight and increase warming, a process called a positive feedback. Warming is less over ocean than over land because of the great heat capacity of the deep-mixing ocean, which causes warming to occur more slowly there. Hansen and his colleagues in New York collaborated with David Lea and Martin of UCSB to obtain comparisons of recent temperatures with the history of the Earth over the past million years. The California researchers obtained a record of tropical ocean surface temperatures from the magnesium content in the shells of microscopic sea surface animals, as recorded in ocean sediments. One of the findings from this collaboration is that the Western Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are now as warm as, or warmer than, at any prior time in the Holocene. The Holocene is the relatively warm period that has existed for almost 12,000 years, since the end of the last major ice age. The Western Pacific and Indian Oceans are important because, as these researchers show, temperature change there is indicative of global temperature change. Therefore, by inference, the world as a whole is now as warm as, or warmer than, at any time in the Holocene. According to Lea, "The Western Pacific is important for another reason, too: it is a major source of heat for the world's oceans and for the global atmosphere." In contrast to the Western Pacific, the researchers find that the Eastern Pacific Ocean has not shown an equal magnitude of warming. They explain the lesser warming in the East Pacific Ocean, near South America, as being due to the fact this region is kept cool by upwelling, rising of deeper colder water to shallower depths. The deep ocean layers have not yet been affected much by human-made warming. Hansen and his colleagues suggest that the increased temperature difference between the Western and Eastern Pacific may boost the likelihood of strong El Nino, such as those of 1983 and 1998. An El Nino is an event that typically occurs every several years when the warm surface waters in the West Pacific slosh eastward toward South America, in the process altering weather patterns around the world. The most important result found by these researchers is that the warming in recent decades has brought global temperature to a level within about one degree Celsius (1.8°F) of the maximum temperature of the past million years. According to Hansen, "That means that further global warming of 1 degree Celsius defines a critical level. If warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be relatively manageable. During the warmest interglacial periods the Earth was reasonably similar to today. But if further global warming reaches 2 or 3 degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about three million years ago, when sea level was estimated to have been about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today." Global warming is already beginning to have noticeable effects in nature. Plants and animals can survive only within certain climatic zones, so with the warming of recent decades many of them are beginning pole ward. A study that appeared in Nature Magazine in 2003 found that 1700 plant, animal and insect species moved pole ward at an average rate of 6 kilometers (about 4 miles) per decade in the last half of the 20th century. That migration rate is not fast enough to keep up with the current rate of movement of a given temperature zone, which has reached about 40 kilometers (about 25 miles) per decade in the period 1975 to 2005 ."Rapid movement of climatic zones is going to be another stress on wildlife," according to Hansen. "It adds to the stress of habitat loss due to human developments. If we do not slow down the rate of global warming, many species are likely to become extinct. In effect we are pushing them off the planet." The real danger for our entire civilization comes not from slow climate changes, but from overheating the planetary interior. Galileo discovered that Earth moves. Copernicus discovered that Earth moves around the Sun. In 2000 inspired report, discovered that the solid nucleus of our planet is in principle a nuclear reactor, it is eccentric, and that our collective ignorance may cause it to overheat and explode. The discovery has been published in June 2001 by the new scientific journal NUJournal.net. Polar ice caps melt not because the air there is warmer than 0 deg Celsius, but because they are overheated from underneath. Volcanoes become active and erupt violently not because the Earth's interior "crystallizes", but because the planetary nucleus is a nuclear fission reactor that needs COOLING. It seems that the currently adopted doctrine of a "crystalline inner core of Earth" is more dangerous for humanity than all weapons of mass destruction taken together, because it prevents us from imagining, predicting and preventing truly global disasters. In any nuclear reactor, the danger of overheating has to be recognized early. When external symptoms intensify it is usually too late to prevent disaster. Do we have enough imagination, intelligence and integrity to comprehend the danger before the situation becomes irreversible? It seems that if we do not do anything today about Greenhouse Emissions that cause the entire atmosphere to trap more Solar Heat, we may not survive the next decade. In a systematically under-cooled spherical core reactor the cumulative cause-effect relationship is hyperbolic and leads to explosion. It seems that there will be no second chance... If you doubt whether a planet can explode - you need to see a witness report of a planetary explosion in on global warming our Solar system. Plato (428-348 BC) reported that the explosion of the planet Phaeton had been perceived by our ancestors on Earth to be as bright as lightning. The last few years were the WARMEST ever recorded on Earth. The trend continues. Huge parts of Antarctic and Arctic ice global warming information have already melted. Key Antarctic glaciers (Green and Evans for example) increased their melting rate 8 times in 3 years (between 2000 and 2003, glaciers begin to slide to the ocean the sea level rise will cause not only tsunamis but a global planetary flood. Volcanoes become effect of global warming active under Arctic Ocean and in Antarctica In the past, volcanic activity was followed by decades of dormancy. Today, when volcanoes erupt they remain active and the neighboring volcanoes erupt... The Largest Volcanoes on Earth have lost their snow-caps Oceans are warmer than ever. Their increased evaporation produces large amount of clouds, rain and widespread flooding Oceans around Antarctica at depths of 5 km are less salty and less dense confirming that Antarctica is melting from underneath. The fresh water is lighter than salt water, so it should be on top about global warming. In heated oceans all currents are severely disrupted Mountain glaciers melt around the globe the weather around the globe becomes more violent every month Trees begun to BLOOM in winter. Photo on the left show Australian black wood trees blooming in August (Mt Best, Victoria). This is equivalent to European and USA trees blooming in February. Plants detect "season" by monitoring the soil temperature. Energy of earthquakes systematically increases. The graph on the left depicts the annual quake energy since record begun in 1973, computed on the basis of USGS scientific data from all quakes above 4.0 1973. The data is compared (scaled) to 1973 quake energy. The energy of earth 7.0 and above increased 6 times in the same period... According to the current "scientific" dogmas, the planetary interior "crystallizes" and becomes less liquid as the time goes on. So, tectonic plate motion should become slower in time and quakes should become less frequent and less energetic. The evidence presented in the graph on the left demonstrates exactly the opposite. In the period of time when the planetary climate changed by a small fraction of one degree, earthquakes have become 5 times more energetic. I wonder why no one on Earth makes any notice of NASA measurements confirm (Science 308, 1431-1435) that Earth absorbs more energy from the Sun that it is able to reflect to space - about 0.85 Mega Watt per square kilometer more. Pollution increases daily and Solar activity is on the increase until 2012. Global increase in tectonic, volcanic and seismic activity seems certain. Have we reached the point of no return? Some people claim that the observable earthquake energy rise is due and/or "increasing the number of seismic stations". This claim cannot be true. Waves from large quakes travel around the globe and are detectable ANYWHERE. Since time of Cold War there is enough seismic stations on Earth to pin-point location of a nuclear explosion (a quake 4.0) within a few km. Increasing number of seismic stations and better equipment can only be responsible for the increase in the number of "small" quakes being detected. The global energy of "small" earthquakes (below 7.0) increased only by 40% since 1973. In contrast, the global energy of quakes 7.0 and above increased 6 times in the same period. This is not any theory. It is an observable FACT. What causes an 8-fold increase in Antarctic glacier melting in just 3 years? Sun does not deliver 8 times the energy under the Antarctic ice does it? Some scientists predict that effects of "global warming" will take many decades. Can they explain the increase of the melting rate of Antarctic glaciers 8 times in 3 years? Overheating of the fission heated planetary interior can... "Climate change" cannot explain why deep Antarctic Ocean gets less salty and less dense. Overheating of the fission heated planetary interior can... Antarctica is just about the only left available for the planetary interior. The matter seems URGENT global warming pictures. Please forward this page (or the link to it) to ANY scientist or person of integrity whom you know. Our ONLY chance seems to be to UNDERSTAND and PROVE to everyone what will happen if we do not change our attitude to atmospheric pollution. Avoid the mass media - it seems that they are controlled by those who run the "economy" and are interested in keeping humanity misinformed to the greatest extent possible. To withhold, distort or otherwise interfere with the truth about the Planetary Core is a Crime against Humanity - one of the greatest crimes that man can commit. Money cannot save the Planet. Only Understanding can. Focus on Understanding. It cannot be undone. |